demand destruction myth

DEMAND DESTRUCTION MYTH
Before we start today’s tirade against stupidity and wishful thinking, I would like to briefly address the reaction to my article on post-apocalypse banditry. Both an individual in the comments section and Creekmore in an article on his web page pointed out flaws in my reasoning. They did so in a logical and polite manner, unlike certain dill holes that just blather on and get pissy and complain about things I have already clarified ( one example being since I live in a trailer park I can’t teach survivalism even though I preach frugal prepping and frugal living and the cheapest way to live in town is in the trailer park ). I want constructive criticism. If I make an error, let me know. So thank you to the first two. If I write a second part to the subject I’ll try to address those errors. To the irrational emotional critics, I already have a wife.
*
Demand destruction is the myth that as soon as oil gets too expensive, demand for it will drop and the supplies we have will last longer and we will never run out of energy and small grey aliens with big slanted eyes will land on the White House lawn and give the First Husband a gratis probe and give the Supreme Dictator For Life Hillary the secret to room temperature fusion and we will all live happily ever after and keep driving our SUV’s around and stay in our thousand square feet per person homes out in the middle of the desert. One problem with this myth is that while a small percentage of the oil in the United States is subject to this purely economic action, by this point oil is a matter of life and death and by the time oil gets too expensive for us to afford we will be starving in the streets.
*
Oil to the Third World has always been something of a luxury. It was never so affordable that they gave up water buffalo for tractors. Or, if they did such as in former Soviet satellite states, the process was never so all encompassing or long enough that the old ways couldn’t be re-adopted. The more prosperous states completely surrendered the older ways of food production and transportation and are almost entirely dependant on oil for all life support functions, from crop production to staying alive in severe weather to getting water to drink. After a certain point, those areas that were always poor will be thankful they never became dependant on oil ( unless they are a oil exporting area and then they will all be dead as the oil will be fought over ).
*
Once oil becomes truly unaffordable, very few people are going to be able to voluntarily cut back on the amount they use. The Third World already by and large does without any for the most part. Many areas now exporting will need all that they produce for their own population ( such as Russia or Iran ). China can only cut back at the expense of industrial production ( the engine of their economy ). Overly populated regions such as India or Indonesia could only cut back in the farm sector. That would be suicide. As oil supplies dry up, even regions not 100% dependant on oil in the agricultural sector will have less to work with, so even drivers in the cities giving up their mode of transportation will not be enough to run the bare minimum to feed the population. You can’t count on less use when the minimum is used now and as the populations keep growing.
*
In the US, sure, we could cut back in certain ways. Giving up wasteful driving. Multiple unneeded trips. Driving as entertainment. Driving short distances we could walk. But that will only take us so far. Car pooling will certainly help. Turning down the thermostat. Allowing redundant businesses to fail. But will this be enough to compensate for a growing population and decreasing supply? We had better hope so, but even if my doubts are unfounded, after a period of time no matter what we do it still won’t be enough. We might wallow in luxury, but such is our dependence, some luxuries are now necessities as there is no alternate way of doing things.
*
We used to be swimming in oil. We used to export it, being the global leader. Then FDR got us into a war to enrich his masters at the Federal Reserve and we pretty much pissed through our surplus of both steel and oil. It has been downhill ever since. But we still had enough to become totally dependant on it. When you are surrounded by trees you can’t see the entire forest. Few people gave it any thought. But now, tractors and artificial fertilizers and semi-trucks to the market are no longer nice and easy ways of feeding ourselves but in fact are pretty much the only way. We can’t just hitch back up the mule team or go back to natural fertilizer, or for that matter we can’t expect the tax code to be changed to encourage self-sufficient farmers. The guv’mint wants its pound of flesh and something as simple as food security will not deter them. As in everything in our society every activity has multiple parasites attached to it and they won’t let Peak Oil stand in the way. In a way it is good. Official corruption is institutionalized. Everyone pays the same bribe instead of it being a unknowable expense. But in the long run it is still corruption and impedes survival through adaptation.
*
At the same time that we have an increasing population ( if you believe the official figures for illegals you have been smoking crack-at least double that ) we also are seeing oil production decline everywhere. When Mexico runs out of enough oil to increase both problems we will really see the effects. We can’t cut back past a certain point. Our military will most likely be using even more oil in the future as we go to war in other areas to steal even more oil ( the Pentagon is the globes biggest user ). Not that I object. The cold hard facts are that people have always stolen what they needed to survive. I realize it is all for the benefits of our leaders and I am only benefited in a secondary manner ( as in, I’ll survive longer even if at a lower living standard ). But the facts are also that you can’t squeeze blood from a stone. When oil gets scarce but demand only falls slightly and more people populate the place, it will eventually spell the end. In the end the algae take over the pond and no more oxygen is available.
*
Even if we could transition back to renewable living through local organic farming and train only transportation, the population is too large for that. Too many mouths to feed, not enough land for low tech growing. Or enough energy and resources to relocate the population to centralized dwellings to reclaim farmland. We simply can’t cut back enough on demand to sustain the population that is growing as our supplies contract.
END
www.bisonpress.com for books and gear