I've ranted before about overpopulation. How we are dependant on oil, a dwindling resource, to feed everybody. How immigration policy, which is deliberately open door, causes wages to fall. How most towns have seen doubling populations in the last few decades and all the pressures it causes as far as housing prices and traffic congestion and what not. Let me try again, because I don't think most of us have thought it out completely. Perhaps even myself. If I had, I wouldn't be living near anybody at all.
Overpopulation is normal. A growing population means more farmers and more soldiers and more taxes, and more control over workers. Everyone loves growing populations. Until it reaches the tipping point and resources run out and most people die. No one seems overly worried about population. But both globally and in the US, we have severe overpopulation. We simply don't have the resources to keep every one alive except for oil. And we can already see that 2005 was the peak of global oil production. We are now on the leveled top of the production bell curve. And the only reason we haven't started going down the other side is our increased use of unconventional carbon energy to make up for the declining oil figures and the economy putting a stop to growth. If you think that this economic depression is going to be bad, imagine what a world of increased oil demand with decreased oil production would be like. We are actually on the better side of the collapse.
But this has only bought us some time. We are still going to see a point where energy availability doesn't meet the demand for food. So far, we have had several factors putting off this point in time. Our food quality has decreased, being grown in almost completely infertile soil that is seeing more pollution from increased artificial inputs. Our food imports has increased. And the reprieve from high oil prices has scaled back ethanol production. Of course, we have yet to feel the effects of the global drought and further declines of oil production from Mexico and others. It only takes a small change on the down side to start food shortages. A percent less oil imported, or a grain failure elsewhere, or even more credit contraction keeping equipment from reaching enough farms. Look at the rice spectacle last year. It only took a few areas seeing production failures to set off a world wide shortage. It was solved by Japan opening its stockpiles ( which had been built up under US pressure to buy our rice, but Japan wants to keep local production going so they don't let ours get to market ), a time time unrepeatable event.
We have no stockpiles anywhere. What if some event put the brakes on shipping? Over half of our artificial fertilizer production went overseas after Katrina. Chinese civil unrest alone could throw all global trade into an uproar. I don't know exactly what will drive us into a crisis. But something will. We are on the razors edge for survival, everything must work perfectly. Any failure in the system brings it down. I don't think we have much resiliency left, all excess having been turned into profit already ( system in decline eating the seed corn ). And when it starts failing, we have huge teeming masses of humanity that have no means of support or anything in reserve. You can't stock enough bullets to repulse that many survivors climbing into the life boats.
Got a safe place to wait out the die-off?
I know, mostly the obvious being repeated. Not inspired much today. I did post a new Chicken Little Magazine. Number six, with the novel The Scarlet Plague by Jack London. Only fifty cents, at www.bisonpress.com . Thanks loyal minion, for compiling the Bison issues for it.