Friday, January 13, 2012

ethanol horde

ETHANOL HORDE


A minion was wondering if the Golden Horde threat was all that real, and there is a new article out at Energy Bulletin on the end of the ethanol subsidy and import ban. Let’s take the ethanol news first as I have very little new to say on it. When TPTB do something incredibly stupid it is both because they are indeed incompetent short sighted asswhores and because some group is benefiting from the action. When they finally reverse themselves it is not out of logic or common sense but because they have no other choice. When Bush The Younger got us involved in Iraq, it was most likely because his handler Cheney ( supreme douchebag of this century, but also a pretty cool guy that had no problem busting a cap into, literally, the ass of a lawyer. Hell, if Hitler and Stalin killed a bunch of lawyers they can’t be all bad even considering the other 40 million combined body count ) wanted to make a few bucks, because the country needed a nice war spending booster to counter a sagging Tech Wreck economy and to control future flows of oil from the middle east. Obammy The Kenyan promised to end that war but he is a lying sack of crap ( read my big floppy lips, no new taxes. New cigarette taxes two months after swearing in may his evil soul combust in the putrid flames of a bubbling bowel in hell alongside wife #2 ). After three years, he finally placed a piece of eye candy on the sore to make it look like we were out. Why? Not to win reelection because elections are rigged nowadays. Not to fulfill his promises ( read my fecal stained lips that continually suckle the anus of central bankers, no new taxes. What the crap is that new universal health care bill, bitch? ) because he lies so much he can’t remember what he promised. He pulled out of one war because we are hemorrhaging money much worse than is admitted and that was the only choice we had. So when Bush Junior starts the ethanol subsidy it is because it benefits one special interest group plus it denies food to the Third World. Those darn darkies must be ethnically cleansed ( as a bonus, it makes the Saudi’s regime less stable and they are more beholden to us for military support ). And most importantly, at the time we didn’t have the frac fuels we do now. We were desperately trying to stem the decline from import drops. Of course I can’t be sure, but I’d wager the food situation here is much more dire than admitted. We needed to put a heck of a lot more grain on the market for human consumption. As far as gasoline prices, expect them to soar. Ethanol was ten percent of our liquid fuels.
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A minion was wondering why The Horde was such a fearsome foe if most people are going to assume the government will come to the rescue. And given folks reluctance to leave their “castle”, their only form of savings. And their only form of retirement most likely ( I don’t think there will be ANY market for reverse mortgages anymore, but idiots who lived the middle class won’t acknowledge that truth as it is their only life preserver ). These are good points. Most folks will remain stationary. Most won’t have enough gasoline in their vehicles. Most will wait until the roads are a huge stationary traffic jam before they try to bug out. All this is true. But the problem isn’t in the percentages, it is in the raw numbers. Because we are so overpopulated, even small numbers pose an extreme risk. And the places folks live nowadays is far worse than it used to be. Back in the last Great Depression, the bulk of the population lived on farms. Or, they lived in cities near farms. Today, almost everyone is far away from food production and it is totally centralized. To cope with the overpopulation of once fertile food production areas, people moved into all the marginal land. They didn’t see a problem. Here was a piece of land, dirt cheap because it was junk land. They imported federal money to live on and used federally constructed grid power to survive. None of these areas, from the swamps of Florida to the deserts of the southwest, can support more than a few miserable indigenous tribes. When the grid fails or the government checks stop, there is no living off the land. The land is incapable of supporting more than a handful. So, even though a lot of people will eventually move some time or another, even after most are dead there is such a huge number of them ( 15 million in Florida, 7 million in L.A., etc. ) that the survivors, warm from burning McMansions for fireplace heat and still picking the rotting flesh of the first dead out of their dentures, will make up a formidable horde. It is just like the small percentages that toppled the banks. When you are leveraged 100 to 1, a two percent loss bankrupts you. When just a percent or two of every town survives, there were so many there that a huge mob is left. Most can’t hoard enough ammunition.

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This is true almost everywhere you look. Small percentages are now huge threats because the system has been overleveraged. To the number of retirees that will bankrupt Social Security, to the amount of money an insurer can pay out before all claims are denied, to the low number of crop failures that will start widespread famine. This ain’t your pappy’s survivalism anymore, as I’ve said before. Surviving the sixties nuke attack was as easy as picking a desolate area not downwind. Today, what desolate areas? I might live in one of the more remote spots, but that doesn’t mean most cars can’t make that 200 miles. It also means that once sleepy town itself is overpopulated so its location is little consolation. Fear the horde.

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10 comments:

Solsys said...

Very true.

Sometimes, serious survivalists would have to accept that there is not always a solution to every problem.

The Hoarde is such a problem without solution.

As the IRA once said to Maggie Tchatcher after they failed to kill her : "We can lose several times, we just need to win once. You, on the other hand, will have to win every time."

Anonymous said...

The Horde is a concept that arose out of the fast collapse scenarios. Nuclear war = every survivor flees the cities and suburbs. It is a reasonable theory because they have the gas and energy to do it. In a slow collapse, most will stay where they are until they have no gas and little food or water. How far will they get through stripped countryside? When I was a scout leader we took the kids on a hike. Since these were cub scouts, they let us break the trail into 3 phases. We started with 30+ kids. Day 1 was 7 almost dead flat miles on a good trail. Half the kids and 5 out of 8 adults dropped out, It was hot and they were not used to carrying packs (daypacks). The next two phases were hilly with decent trails. Of a group of well fed, fully rested, reasonably fit adults and scouts, only 4 kids and I finished the hike. Take a look around. Most of the people that I see would be winded if they had to run across a parking lot to get to their cars. If they have food and water it would take them days to travel 70 or 80 miles. If they had to stop to look for food and water, as they would, they would never make it.

Gary in Bama said...

Jim i do not think a hoarde is possibble anymore.10 years ago it was a valid point but today the federalies have the bloated TSA it started as airline check point but we are seeing them expand in scope.When the TSA started it was to aclamate the public to check points{a simple airline solution was ban ALL carry on}with the intent on domestic roads and highways.With check points limiting the bug-out options 98% of people will be traped in place making them controlable for the most part.with a declared emergance Most major citys can be contained with 2 dozen major check points and a few secondary closed roads.we are in the slow proccess of losing unrestricted travel but plans are in FEMA and EMS,s play book to imobleise us at there decrecion.

Anonymous said...

Thanks for the reminder. Once again you've hit the proverbial hammer on the proverbial head. That head being mine. I, the South Floridiot, can only imagine two or three million zombies trying to survive out in the Everglades. Gave it some thought meself, yet came to the same conclusion as you, the almighty Bison. I also thought of doing a yuppie scum sailboat gettaway scenario. But, where to, and just think about the number of lunatics that would be on the water. No thanks, take my chances on land. Oh well. At least I get to eat my last bullet.

russell1200 said...

Yes small percentages of large numbers can still make for some pretty big numbers.

A smuall urban area (which would include satellite towns, suburbs, etc. is generally going to be pushing a million people +.

Don't let city population numbers fool you, most cities have a large settled area outside of their city limits. Take an extreme example: Myrtle Beach South Carolina only has a population of 27,000. Its metro area population is almost 330,000. And not many people actually think of Mytrle Beach as a "City".

So if 1% of your nearby million-pop urban area show up in your little berg, you are looking at 10,000 people. If you look at the roads with bridges, most urban areas only have a limited number of places into which they can evacutate without running into another urban area.

I think the mass flight from the city scenario is overstated. But you don't need to have a "mass" flight to have problems headed your way.

Anonymous said...

Your point about the numbers is sage. It does not take many desperate people showing up to undermine one's survival plan. But... I'm not convinced those that do show up would necessarily be big, bad, biker-zombies (which seems to be the survivalist folklore wisdom). Just as likely the horde would be ragged, starving-to-the-point-of-feebleness, nuisances. I still plan for the worst.

Anonymous said...

Only time will tell what people will do, what we see *now* is, people moving back in with family, moving in with friends, finding someone who will let them live in their barn in exchange for chores, that kind of thing.

People have always moved into the cities in Depressions. To look for work, to get money, to buy food .....Waitaminute... they left the food-producing countryside. But almost no one wants to be a farmer. Lookit the Joads. Go back and read the book. They sold a shit-ton of stuff and had their mitts on something like a thousand bucks. Worth about $20,000 now. They likely could have bought some damn land and become full-croppers instead of share-croppers. Remember the guy who stayed behind, figuring he'd live OK on rabbits and stuff? He probably did do all right, better than the Joads did. They literally preferred to starve to death rather than live "like a wild Indian" which what my mom called us when we were romping around like savages.

But people now are even more narrowly skilled and rigid in their thinking. And anyone born after 1980 never knew real hunger. They're just going to stay put, and then get too lethargic to do much but keep staying put.

Idaho Homesteader said...

I think initially, there will be the opposite happening--people from the country will be moving--bugging out to the cities.

That's where the FEMA food handouts will be, shelters, electricity, any fuel, etc.

Most Americans are parasitic and live off the host. As the host loses energy and scales back, the parasites will be drawn into the core.

We are already seeing that in North Idaho. People are moving to the cities to get jobs, low-income apartments, etc.

Only when the host is completely dead will the parasites leave. And that is when you will have gridlock, dog eat dog, police blocking the exits (remember that during Katrina?).

Idaho Homesteader

Anonymous said...

Thank you sir, for being a human being.

Not sure how I stumbled across your blog but it's as cleansing to my mind as listening to the wind blow through the leaves of a oak tree on a early fall night. That being said, you may want to climb down off your high horse since I am a moron and we outnumber you.

Exhibit A
Thursday, October 26, 2006
www.bisonpress.com for my books

Exhibit B
Friday, January 13, 2012
The Official Bison Web Site http://www.bisonpress.com/

I didn't realize that you could get your PDF books on "The Official Bison Web Site" until I was reading your past blog entry and saw you spelling it out for us with your 10/26/06 blog addendum "see www.bisonpress.com for my books." Normally one would feel stupid after seeing this and putting 1+1 together (books = press) but I am usually normally stupid so the awareness skipped off my Conscience (damn spell check always caps first word, can't get it to shut off...) sorta like that command module skipping across the lunar surface after you crashed and burned in the arcade game Lunar Landing.

You may want to reevaluate your haughty webpage title since you probably get more traffic through your blog then through "The Official Bison Web Site http://www.bisonpress.com/" Or maybe just add "for my books" as a byline. It builds karma, and a bit of coin, being nice to dumb animals.

PS: Just saw your 10/28/06 blog entry end with "BUY BISON BOOKS NOW www.bisonpress.com". PERFECT! It grabs one's limited attention span with subliminal messages.

Daaswampman said...

I live about 40 miles from an area of 250,000 and not on an evacuation route. I own another place about 150 miles away. The choice is a well developed site 40 miles away or something not developed 150 miles away? Both are considered rural, but drive around and you see way too many trailers and small towns. Hunker down with plenty of water and a great garden site or start over in the woods. There is no way to develope the other site to the level of my home until retirement and by then - who knows. Thank You for bringing this up. I value your insight, but sometimes it is depressing. At least I don't live in Elko. DaaSwampman